TikTok Shop Projected to Become a Top-Three Global Retailer by 2030, Surpassing Walmart

Flywheel Report Reveals a Stunning Forecast

TikTok Shop could become a top-three global retailer by 2030

Report estimates TikTok Shop could rank among top three global retailers by 2030, reaching $1T in sales and reshaping global marketplace share

On February 24, 2026, commerce agency Flywheel published a report predicting that ByteDance, parent company of TikTok Shop, will become the world's third-largest retailer by 2030. According to WWD's coverage, TikTok Shop is projected to achieve approximately $1 trillion in annual sales and capture 14.6% of global marketplace share.

Based on these projections, the 2030 global retail rankings would place Amazon at number one ($1.1 trillion in sales), Pinduoduo at second, and ByteDance (TikTok Shop + Douyin) at third. Notably, Walmart, currently the world's largest retailer, is projected to fall to fifth place, becoming the only brick-and-mortar-centric retailer in the top five.

Background and Industry Trends

TikTok Shop's rapid growth signals the mainstreaming of social commerce as a fundamentally new form of e-commerce. Traditional e-commerce has been dominated by the "search-first" model, where consumers type keywords to find products. In contrast, TikTok Shop operates on a "discovery-first" model, where algorithms surface products through short videos and live streams.

In its January 2026 report, Flywheel projected TikTok Shop's 2026 GMV (Gross Merchandise Value) at approximately $87 billion, representing 56% year-over-year growth. Furthermore, TikTok Shop is predicted to be the world's seventh-largest e-commerce player by 2030, while sister app Douyin would rank fourth. ByteDance's combined global e-commerce share would reach 14.6%, approaching Amazon's 15.9%.

The broader social commerce market is also expanding rapidly. Mordor Intelligence estimates the market will grow from approximately $2.1 trillion in 2026 to $7.55 trillion by 2031, with a compound annual growth rate of 29.1%. TikTok Shop is positioned as the core player driving this growth.

Data and Strategy Behind the Rapid Growth

TikTok Shop's growth projections are backed by recent performance data. Global GMV reached approximately $19 billion in Q3 2025. Considering that eBay's GMV was $20.1 billion in the same quarter, TikTok Shop has grown to a transaction volume rivaling a legacy marketplace with roughly 30 years of history.

According to Momentum Works research, TikTok Shop's total 2025 full-year GMV was approximately $64.3 billion, a 94% year-over-year increase. The U.S. market alone reached $15.1 billion, up 68% year-over-year.

Seller expansion has also been remarkable. TikTok Shop's global seller count has reached approximately 15 million. In the U.S., the number surged from approximately 4,450 stores in 2023 to 475,000 by mid-2025, a roughly 5,000% increase. Of these, 171,000 are small and medium businesses, accounting for more than one-third of all U.S. TikTok Shop transactions.

In terms of categories, beauty remains the top category, but expansion continues into health and wellness, home goods, and women's apparel. TikTok Shop has also entered luxury brand resale for names like Hermes, Chanel, and Rolex, featuring AI authentication and live-stream selling formats. The platform's reach is extending beyond low-price impulse purchases to high-ticket items as well.

Underpinning TikTok Shop is TikTok's massive traffic base of over 1 billion monthly active users. While independent marketplaces need to spend on advertising to drive traffic, TikTok Shop has a structural advantage in seamlessly guiding users from organic content consumption to purchase within the platform.

Impact and Applications for E-commerce Businesses

In its report, Flywheel explicitly recommends treating TikTok Shop not as an extension of social media initiatives but as an independent retail channel. Here are the key actions e-commerce businesses should take.

Channel portfolio reassessment is essential. In 2026-2027 sales planning, TikTok Shop should be incorporated into budget allocation and staffing on par with Shopify, Amazon, and Walmart. With ByteDance's global share approaching Amazon's level, leaving TikTok Shop as an "experimental channel" means missing significant business opportunities.

Creator strategy design is key. On TikTok Shop, creators effectively serve as "storefronts" through affiliate links and shoppable videos. Brands need to clearly define how much message control to maintain and where to grant creators discretion.

Content and data optimization is also critical. Building product information, creative assets, and reporting frameworks suited for short videos and live streams is essential. Traditional e-commerce product images and text alone are insufficient for competing on TikTok Shop.

U.S. regulatory risks should be acknowledged. In January 2026, TikTok established the new joint venture "TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC" in the U.S., transitioning to a structure where U.S. investors including Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX hold a majority stake. While the immediate ban risk has been averted, impacts on recommendation algorithms and commerce features remain uncertain. However, TikTok Shop currently operates in 17 countries, with geographic diversification mitigating risk.

Summary

If Flywheel's projections materialize, TikTok Shop will have fully transformed from a "shopping feature on social media" to "one of the world's leading retailers." The blueprint of ByteDance scaling its social commerce model, already proven with China's Douyin, to a global level is already showing up in the numbers.

For e-commerce businesses, the critical point is not to defer this shift as a "future concern." As of 2025, TikTok Shop's GMV already rivals eBay's scale, and seller numbers are expanding rapidly. 2026 marks a turning point for whether to place TikTok Shop at the core of channel strategy. Key developments to watch include the progress toward Flywheel's projected 2026 GMV of $87 billion and the trajectory of commerce features following the U.S. joint venture transition.